Sierra Leone: Role of Unlawful Non-State Actors Likely To Experience A Moderate Increase Over The Next Five Years

Executive Summary:
Due to corruption, high unemployment, a concentration on foreign direct investment which will present few jobs for Sierra Leonians, and the inefficacy of the few organized groups to bring about change, non-state actors (NSA) are likely to have minimal influential roles. In the likely case that the economic and political situation does not improve and popular discontent with the government continues the role of NSA are likely to experience a moderate increase over the next five years. The most active and organized government-sanctioned NSA are labor unions, and the government is tolerant to the criticism of Labor interests as well as civil society. Labor unions have demonstrated immense influence and capability and are likely to increase their influence if progress is not made; however, they are more likely to utilized extra-government power sources to exert their influence. Trafficking in humans, drug, arms, and diamonds remains high in Sierra Leone. These unlawful NSA are unlikely to wield significant influence; however, they have a rich source of recruitment in the young unemployed population of Sierra Leone. A few powerful international corporations are likely to claim powerful influential roles in Sierra Leone over the next five years. In the likely case that popular dissent continues in the void of vectors to voice concerns and bring about change, the role of NSA will become increasingly influential and use increasingly more extra-government power potentials (i.e. violence, extortion, etc).

Analytic Confidence: 8
Source Reliability: 9

Discussion:

Overall Score	Democracy Var.	Doing Bus. Var.	Corruption Var.
Failed States Var.	Geo Dis- NGOs	Geo Dis- Bus.	Geo Dis- Ter Grps.